August Truck Freight Tonnage Highest Since December 2023
Analysts Warn of Leaner Times, Downside Risk Due to Uncertainty
Key Takeaways:
- ATA’s not seasonally adjusted index was 117.7 in August compared with 117.4 in July.
- Manufacturing activity rose 0.2% in August after nudging 0.1% lower in July.
- Housing starts, a key freight demand driver, fell 8.5% in August compared with July and were down 6% year over year.
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Trucking activity reached its highest level since December 2023 in August, but prospects for the rest of 2025 are dimmer as the impact of tariffs on U.S. and global economic fortunes bites harder.
Truck freight tonnage rose 0.9% in August after increasing 1.1% in July, according to American Trucking Associations’ seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index.
The index came in at 115.3 in August, up from 114.3 in July, ATA said Sept. 23. In calculating the index, 100 represents the year 2015. ATA’s calculation is based on a survey of its membership.
ATA’s not seasonally adjusted index, which calculates raw changes in tonnage hauled, was 117.7 in August, 0.3% above July’s reading of 117.4.
“The good news is that truck freight volumes had a nice end of the summer,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “However, while I’d like to predict a strong rebound in freight levels through the upcoming holidays, I can’t.
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“I believe traditional seasonal patterns are off this year as shippers adjust to tariffs. Plus, housing remains soft, the slowing labor market is likely to show up in consumer spending at some point, and most manufacturing metrics are either decelerating or declining.”
Federal Reserve data released Sept. 16 showed manufacturing activity rose 0.2% in August after nudging 0.1% lower in July. However, activity only climbed 1.1% year over year in August, compared with July’s 1.5% year-over-year increase.
S&P Global’s September U.S. Flash Manufacturing Output Index fell to 52.1 from 55.2 in August.
“The monthly profile is one of growth having slowed from its recent peak back in July, and September saw companies also pull back on their hiring. Softening demand conditions are also becoming more widely reported, curbing pricing power,” , chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said Sept. 23 in comments released in conjunction with the data.
“In manufacturing, there are also signs that disappointing sales growth has caused inventories to accumulate at an unprecedented rate, which could also further help soften inflation in the coming months,” Williamson said. “The inventory buildup of course also hints at some downside risks to future production.”
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Tariffs on U.S. imports from nearly every nation have risen since May, reaching an estimated effective rate of 19.5% by the end of August, the highest level since the mid-1930s, according to the .
While the full impact of tariff increases is still unfolding, early signs of effects are visible in consumer behavior, labor markets and prices, the intergovernmental organization said in a quarterly economic outlook released Sept. 23, adding that downside risks loom large.
In the meantime, typical freight demand drivers including the housing market and the holiday shipping season are underperforming.
August housing starts fell 8.5% compared with July and were down 6% compared with the same month in 2024, the U.S. Census Bureau said Sept. 17.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell by 1.3 points in August to 97.4 from 98.7 in July.
Confidence is key when around 49.2% of consumer spending is by Americans in the top 10% income bracket, and that segment of the populace’s share of spending is on the rise, per Moody’s Analytics.
“There’s more structural risk here,” John Lash, group vice president of product strategy at the supply chain platform e2open, said in an interview Sept. 23. “It’s the people between the 1% and the 10% that would have a disproportionate impact on spending.”
The uncertainty is having a knock-on effect on retailers as peak shipping season nears.
“Retailers are trying to get a handle on how spooked the consumer is,” Cleo Director of Industry Solutions Frank Kenney told TT.
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“We’re in a unique position,” former Gartner analyst Kenney said of the ongoing uncertainty. “I don’t know if we have the models to predict the impact of the uncertainty.”
Carriers are certainly having a tough time figuring out whether freight demand will pick up or rates increase, the 2025 FTR Transportation Conference in Indianapolis heard earlier in September, with executives and analysts pinning expectations for the latter on a decline in capacity.
Volatility due to the uncertainty is likely to continue deep into 2026, observers also told the Intermodal Association of North America’s Intermodal Expo 2025.
However, some carriers are attempting to prepare for a turnaround, according to Chris Visser, J.D. Power director of specialty vehicles, who notes used truck dealers are seeing a rise in demand if not prices.
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