Outlook Remains Difficult for Intermodal Logistics
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LONG BEACH, Calif. — Uncertainty surrounding shifting trade policies combined with a prolonged freight market downturn continue to create a challenging and unpredictable business environment for intermodal logistics.
These volatile conditions will likely continue into next year, putting pressure on transportation providers across all modes, industry experts predicted during the Sept. 16 opening general session at the .
Meanwhile, the proposed merger of rail giants Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern and the emergence of new technologies also hold the potential to transform intermodal freight operations.
“To say that we live in interesting times is an understatement,” said Anne Reinke, speaking to Intermodal Expo attendees for the first time as IANA’s new president and CEO. “The tariffs with which we are all familiar have impacted volumes, seasonality and planning projections. The country’s first transcontinental railroad will soon be contemplated by federal regulators. And artificial intelligence poses disruptions we didn’t see coming only a few years ago.”
(Seth Clevenger — Transport Topics)
In a panel discussion on the state of intermodal, Lars Jensen, CEO and partner at container shipping consultancy , said the U.S.-led trade war has caused a bifurcation in global containerized freight volumes.
Since the start of the trade war, U.S. imports and exports have been declining while containerized freight has been booming elsewhere in the world, due in part to other countries focusing on strengthening trade partnerships among themselves, Jensen said.
He predicted that trend would endure into 2026 and beyond.
“The rest of the world, I expect, will continue to show strong growth,” Jensen said, “whereas the trade to and from this country is going to be severely challenged not just now but also in the years ahead.”
Conditions also remain difficult for motor carriers.
“We are in the fourth year of a for-hire freight downturn here in the U.S. trucking industry, in the truckload sector in particular,” said Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at . “We’re seeing pretty soft volumes in general but there’s been a lot of volatility this year.”
Denoyer (center) discusses freight market trends with panelists Gross (left) and Austin (right). (Seth Clevenger — Transport Topics)
He noted, however, that declining production of new Class 8 trucks this year and next could help trim the industry’s excess freight hauling capacity, which in turn would improve freight rates.
“The hope is that once we get through the headwinds that we are facing, clearly, over the next few quarters, we’ll get to a tighter supply market,” Denoyer said.
Intermodal expert Larry Gross, president and founder of , projected that the intermodal industry will grow only modestly in 2025 and likely next year as well.
“In 2026, I really do expect sort of more of the same in terms of the outlook,” he said. “I don’t see any quick turnaround, and the economy is not going to help us. International, which is 60% of what we do here in intermodal, is not going to help us.”
(Gross (center) sits alongside Jensen and Denoyer. (Seth Clevenger — Transport Topics)
Instead, growth would need to come through intermodal providers’ own efforts to regain domestic freight market share.
“That’s where I think we really control our destiny,” Gross said.
Shelli Austin, president of intermodal provider , also acknowledged that the current year has been a struggle.
“We’re not breaking any records,” said Austin, a former IANA chairwoman.
Nonetheless, intermodal logistics providers continue to find solutions to transportation challenges even in a down market, she said.
Mark Hill and Danielle Villegas of PCS Software discuss their AI engine, Cortex, designed specifically to level the playing field for midsized carriers. Tune in above or by going to .
The panel also addressed the potential creation of a transcontinental freight railroad through the planned merger of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, a topic that panel moderator Adriene Bailey of consulting firm Oliver Wyman described as the “big hairy gorilla in the room.”
“We are in a moment where we have a historic possibility of the first coast-to-coast U.S. railroad controlled by a single enterprise,” she said.
Gross said the proposed merger could represent a growth opportunity for intermodal.
“Only a small percentage of intermodal loads are interchanged between two railroads, and a single line is an attractive solution to that,” he said.
He cautioned, however, that the proposed merger could become an all-consuming issue for the industry in the next couple years as the regulatory battle unfolds.
Extensive news coverage and mainstream attention to the rail merger already is generating intense interest across the broader transportation sector, Austin added.
“Here’s the exciting part about it. We are hearing from shippers that have never used intermodal before,” she said.
Also during the opening session, Trevor Ash, chairman of IANA’s board of directors, presented the association’s Silver Kingpin Award to its former president and CEO, Joni Casey, recognizing her contributions to the growth and advancement of the intermodal freight industry.
Casey receives the award from Ash. (Seth Clevenger — Transport Topics)
Casey, who led IANA for 27 years through 2024, grew the association’s membership from a few hundred companies to nearly 1,000, Ash said.
“Our industry is a true reflection of synergy and teamwork — and always will be,” Casey said as she accepted the award.
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