Traton CEO Levin Leery of Rivals’ H2 Truck Demand Optimism
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is not as optimistic as at least one of its peers about the prospects for North American medium- and heavy-duty truck demand in the second half of 2025, said July 25.
“I think it would be too early to say that we’re through the most difficult period in the U.S.,” Levin said during a conference call with analysts after the release of second-quarter 2025 earnings by the parent company of International Motors.
Responding to questions from analysts on the call, Levin said he was unconvinced that truck demand would pick up in the way his peers might be suggesting.
“Now we are perhaps a little bit more balanced or careful in our outlook for the U.S.,” Levin, said. “What we hear in the market is there is still a lot of uncertainty, and most of our customers are preferring to wait. You see really high inventory levels all throughout the dealer network, and that’s not just ours, but the whole industry.”
A Different Perspective
Paccar CEO Preston Feight indicated three days earlier during the Bellevue, Wash.-based truck maker’s Q2 earnings call that a multiplicity of factors meant he and his colleagues saw a significant upswing in demand.
Among those factors are a rebalancing of capacity in the truckload sector; upside from the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act; pre-buy purchases ahead of upcoming NOx reduction regulations; and a settling of the tariff uncertainty, he said.
Levin disagreed.
“The expected pre-buy will certainly not happen this year,” he said. “I think we can completely rule that out. There [is even speculation] on delays of the introduction, meaning that it could potentially not even happen in ’27. But all of that is, of course, speculation, but it’s fueling the uncertainty.”
At the end of 2024 and beginning of 2025, truck makers, including International and Paccar, foresaw an upturn in purchases by fleets seeking model year 2025 and 2026 tractors to cut the cost of adhering to Environmental Protection Agency regulations.
EPA Targets Climate Regulations
OEMs were to be disappointed, as the Trump administration promised to pump the brakes on the introduction of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards for Heavy-Duty Vehicles and 2022 Heavy-Duty Nitrogen Oxides rule, lessening the need for a pre-buy.
Carriers also are wary of investing in tractors because of the ongoing freight market weakness, uncertainty around tariffs and because of price increases truck makers introduced due to tariffs already in place.
Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 tariffs on steel and aluminum were first introduced in March and increased in June, leading to truck price rises. The Department of Commerce also is conducting an investigation into whether imports of heavy- and medium-duty trucks and parts should receive levies, which industry stakeholders warn is likely to lead to additional price hikes.
Tariff Factor
Tariffs on individual countries have been introduced, including on major rubber and tire suppliers to the United States, which already has increased tire prices .
“I hope I’m wrong. … There are, of course, many things that can happen, on the tariff side, for instance, and a deal with Europe would, of course,very much bring positive fuel into the market, but it’s not something we can cater in right now, and it’s not something our customers are considering,” said Levin.
“So, I think uncertainty prevails. And I think we will continue to see lower order intake figures coming in, as you have seen from the industry association in April, May and June, and therefore, our lower outlook,” Traton’s top executive told analysts.
Outlook Revised Down
Traton cut its North American Classes 6-8 truck sales outlook to a 7.5%-17.5% year-over-year decrease, with 2025 Class 8 sales expected to come in at 275,000.
The company’s previous estimate was for 2025 to see Classes 6-8 North American sales that were at best flat or at worst down 10%.
“The figures on order intake for [the] industry and, of course, also our own figures are worrying, and that’s not where we want to see the U.S. total market developing,” Levin said.
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International won 8,952 orders in the most recent three-month period, a 9.3% decrease compared with 9,866 orders for trucks and buses in the same quarter 12 months earlier. Separate figures for trucks and buses were not available.
Trump administration’s tariffs on dozens of trade partners are set to kick in Aug. 1. Should uncertainty over the levels or revised agreements be concluded then carrier’s concerns over capital expenditure may be calmed, potentially boosting orders, Levin said.
“I mean, underlying the U.S. economy is not doing bad, right? It’s actually doing quite well. Our customers have an aging fleet,” he said. “There is a renewal need, but there is not a risk-taking appetite as we see it right now.”
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