Nuclear Verdicts Keep Getting Worse for Trucking
Industry Warns Of Economic Fallout From Expanding Liability
Key Takeaways:
- Legal experts at American Trucking Associations’ MCE 2025 said nuclear verdicts of $10 million or more in auto cases are rising sharply, especially in trucking.
- Research from the U.S. Chamber Institute for Legal Reform and The Brattle Group found commercial auto liability costs are growing 10% annually, outpacing GDP and inflation, with tort reforms potentially boosting GDP by $52.3 billion a year.
- Lawmakers pushing tort reform face strong opposition from trial attorneys, who have blocked damage caps and influenced outcomes in key states such as Wisconsin.
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SAN DIEGO — The transportation sector is facing skyrocketing legal verdicts at a moment when fierce opposition to reform is emerging, according to a panel of experts speaking Oct. 26 at American Trucking Associations’ Management Conference & Exhibition.
“We have been hearing from many of our members — some in the transportation industry, many not — about this concerning trend of verdicts rising,” said Oriana Senatore, managing director and senior vice president of strategy at the U.S. Chamber Institute for Legal Reform. “They’re just getting exponentially larger.”
To learn more, Senatore said the group conducted some “foundational research” to put a finer point on the anecdotal evidence and determine the severity of the trend.
The resulting research showed that one in four auto accidents that result in a nuclear verdict involved a commercial trucking company. The researchers defined nuclear verdicts as being $10 million or more. They also found that nuclear verdicts have been getting larger in recent years across industries beyond just trucking, with overall costs reaching $529 billion by 2022.
The Brattle Group assisted with the development of the research.
“Of particular importance to this audience is when you look at what’s driving those increases in tort costs nationally,” said David McKnight, principal at The Brattle Group. “The area of fastest growth, the area where torts costs are growing the fastest, was commercial auto liability. Maybe that’s not surprising to the people in this room, but I think it’s important. Those costs were increasing at a rate of 10% per year. All other costs were increasing at a rate of 7% a year.”
McKnight noted that all of those costs are greater than the increase in the U.S. Gross Domestic Product or inflation. But the fact that the commercial auto industry was growing the fastest prompted the researchers to look more closely at contributing factors.
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The research used a macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy that covered 70 industries, as well as the interconnection between households and the government. It ultimately found that a $1 million change in commercial auto tort costs results in a $2 million impact on GDP. And that works in two directions: $1 million in costs delivers a $2 million hit to GDP, while $1 million in tort reductions adds $2 million to GDP.
“When we take and measure the economic impact using our model, we find that over the next 10 years making [positive] adjustments to the tort system with respect to trucking and commercial auto would result in an average of $52.3 billion a year in GDP. That would create, over that period, 5.7 million new jobs,” McKnight said. “And it would also reduce the inflation in food at-home costs by 15%.”
McKnight added that trucking plays a crucial role in the U.S. economy.
“More than 70% [of] freight in the United States is transported by trucks,” he said. “Given its central role, it’s not surprising that — when you add costs on that industry — they have a rippling effect throughout the entire economy. What we’ve done in this study is to try and model what those broader effects are.”
McKnight said the research also broke down data across states, since each one has individual tort laws that affect verdicts. North Dakota and Wisconsin, for example, have relatively low tort costs, which translates to lower economic impact. Louisiana, Texas and California, in contrast, have relatively high tort and economic impact costs.
Reform Headwinds
Lawmakers who have listened to the research and tried to reform the system have faced opposition from the plaintiff’s bar.
“I can give you an example from last [legislative] session,” said Wisconsin State Assembly Rep. John Spiros. “We brought this total reform bill [with] non-economic damage capped at a million dollars. In committee everybody voted for it. But as we got to the end of committee, what happened was the trial attorneys got to the governor.”
Spiros said the plaintiff’s bar has been successful in blocking many tort reform efforts, putting specific effort into blocking caps on non-economic damages that are awarded in verdicts. Beyond that, he noted some states haven’t advanced tort reform efforts, while others have moved bills that lack impact.
“I see a lot of forum shopping,” said Michael Roberts, a partner at Scopelitis, Garvin, Light, Hanson & Feary, of attorneys’ efforts to tailor lawsuits to specific jurisdictions. Continuing the focus on Wisconsin, he noted, “We’re seeing reasonable verdicts out of rural counties. Reasonable, both in damages and in liability, and analyzing what did somebody actually do wrong, if anything. We’re not seeing that in places like Cook County. We’re seeing it not to that extreme, but in Milwaukee County, more urban areas are leading to increased verdicts.”
