Randall: Truck Demand Unlikely to Rebound Before Q4 2026
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Mack Trucks does not expect a turnaround in North American Class 8 tractor demand before the fourth quarter of 2026, said Jonathan Randall, president of Mack Trucks North America.
Volvo Group unit Mack expects a flat year for demand overall in 2026, the executive told the in Indianapolis on Sept. 8.
“I think the word is ‘uncertain,’ ” he said, when asked by FTR Transportation Intelligence CEO about the prospects for next year.
The introduction of tariffs by the Trump administration, particularly on raw materials, and the potential for punitive levies on medium- and heavy-duty truck and parts imports — while dealing with an elongated freight recession — turned the plans of truck makers upside down, Randall said.
Thank you to Jonathan Randall, President of Mack Trucks North America, for delivering our Truck Equipment keynote at .
From microsegments to tariffs, sustainability & new tech—his insights are driving the future of trucking. — FTR | Transportation Intelligence (@FTRintel)
“This was supposed to be an easy year,” he said, referring to 2025, particularly as Mack planned an overhaul of its over-the-road tractor lineup.
Despite the uncertainty blanketing the freight market and tractor demand, Mack started its 2026 planning cycle about eight weeks ago, he said.
“We are planning as best we can, but it’s a dartboard,” Randall said. “What we would like is a level of certainty.”
Normally, the policy team and the lawyers at Mack and its parent company have what Randall said could be boring jobs, but with all the upheaval in trade policy and its subsequent impact on supply chains, they’ve been “rock stars.”
And when it comes to 2026, “they’re doing the best they can to read the tea leaves,” he said.
Mack is doing a lot of scenario planning, he noted.
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But the original equipment manufacturer is at a disadvantage at the moment — compared with peers that operate Mexican plants — as a result of the introduction of the tariffs, he said.
Mack and its suppliers have to pay levies on imports to the United States, whereas its peers with Mexican production or assembly plants do not.
Currently, every Mack truck is built at the company’s three East Coast production plants. Volvo Group is the only legacy Class 8 truck maker without a Mexican facility.
The Swedish-owned original equipment manufacturer in April 2024 unveiled plans to build a 1.7 million-square-foot truck manufacturing plant in Mexico.
Daimler Truck North America owns two plants in Mexico: Saltillo and Santiago Tianguistenco. International Motors opened its Escobedo assembly plant in 1998. Paccar Inc.’s Peterbilt unit manufactures trucks in Mexicali.
Randall said Mack does not provide details on the cost impact of the tariffs, either in outright terms or as a percentage figure.
But Wolfe Research analyst Cole Couzens told the conference there is a 3% headwind on costs for U.S. Class 8 production versus Mexican production.
Truck prices have increased by $3,000 to $4,000 in 2025 as a result of U.S. and reciprocal tariffs, Couzens estimated. Costs have increased by much more.
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Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst for commercial vehicles, estimates the cost of building a Class 8 truck or tractor increased between 15% and 24% overall as a result of various tariffs introduced since the beginning of 2025.
Moyer estimates raw material and fabricated component costs are up 9%-12%, that non-United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement tariffs boosted costs by 2%-4%, while 30% Chinese and separate reciprocal tariffs increased costs by a similar amount.
Uncertainty over the tariffs and freight economy is hurting sales and orders. U.S. Class 8 retail truck sales through the first seven months of 2025 fell 6.1% year over year, according to Wards Intelligence data. There’s no incentive for fleets to invest due to the uncertainty in the market but also the ongoing freight recession.
“Fleets don’t feel the need to place an order,” Randall said.
That’s not what you want to hear when you’ve just launched two new tractors like Mack has in 2025.
Mack in April unveiled its new flagship Class 8 model, the Pioneer. The first week of September saw Mack begin the first deliveries of the Pioneer, Randall told FTR conference attendees. An overhaul of the Anthem tractor was revealed June 25, repositioning the semi as a maneuverable regional-haul specialist in the wake of the introduction of the Pioneer. The order book for the Anthem opened Sept. 3. Serial production is scheduled to begin in January.
Mack is just starting on its transition in the over-the-road market, Randall said. Volvo Group decided to spend $2 billion on new product development in the North American market. Mack received $1.2 billion of that total, he said, noting that the longhaul segment of the freight market is a new step for Mack with the Pioneer.
“We’re a nominal player,” Randall said.
Mack is not going to reach the position it wants to be in the overall freight market if it doesn’t make gains in the longhaul market, he said.
Volvo Group aims to win a 25% share of the North American heavy-duty truck market by 2030. The target was announced by executives at the company’s Capital Markets Day in November.
Volvo Trucks North America won a 10.2% share of U.S. Class 8 retail sales in 2024, while Mack captured a 6.9% share, according to Wards data.
