September Class 8 Truck Sales Fall 25% From Year-Ago Period
Decline Is Third Consecutive as Tariff Uncertainty Continues 'Angst' for Trucking Industry
Key Takeaways:
- U.S. Class 8 retail truck sales fell 25.6% in September to 16,228 units, marking the third consecutive monthly year-over-year decline, Wards Intelligence reported.
- Analysts cited weak freight demand, declining construction spending and uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s planned 25% tariff on imported trucks as key factors behind the drop.
- Industry leaders expect sales to remain soft until freight rates and regulatory clarity on EPA emissions rules and tariffs improve, with recovery possible in late 2026.
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U.S. Class 8 retail sales fell below the prior year for the third month in a row in September, according to Wards Intelligence data.
Sales decreased 25.6% to 16,228 from the 21,813 units reported during the prior-year period. They also declined 9.2% from the 17,876 units reported in August. The only year-over-year increase in 2025 occurred in June. Year-to-date sales are down 9.2% to 160,981 from 177,368.
“This was [a] bigger [drop] than we expected. I think it’s an ongoing reflection of just the angst in the industry,” ACT Research Vice President Steve Tam said. “People are concerned, they don’t know what to do, so they’re not doing anything. And of course, in that vein, falls the sales. The other interesting piece, I think, and it’s certainly not coincidence, that has an impact on the mentality ... is that 25% tariff.”
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President Donald Trump plans to place a 25% tariff on all imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks starting Nov. 1. The announcement marked an escalation in his ongoing trade war with numerous trading partners from around the globe. Tam noted that there still isn’t a clear picture of what the policy looks like.
RELATED: How Trump's Tariffs on Trucks, Parts Could Hit Fleets, OEMs
“It’s got folks nervous, just like everything else,” Tam said. “And so, the manufacturers, in anticipation, I think of that, but also, even ahead of that, we’re already starting to cut production, and as you and I have talked in the past, if you don’t build it, you can’t sell it. So I think we’ve got some of that going on as well. It’s just really an odd time in the industry right now.”
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Tam suspects that there is some pent-up momentum when it comes to buying trucks. But the challenge, he says, is companies’ inability and unwillingness to make those investments given the freight market. He doesn’t expect to see significant increases in capital expenditure until freight rates and profitability improve.
RELATED: Why America’s Trade Partners Oppose Trump’s Truck Tariffs
“So you’re not going to see orders increasing,” Tam said. “There’s certainly a scenario that could play out where, the scales could tip suddenly, and you’d see that big surge, but that’s not today, and that’s not this year, that’s maybe in the second half of next year.”
All but one of the seven major truck makers experienced year-over-year sales decreases, according to the Wards data. Freightliner, a brand of Daimler Truck North America, claimed the largest market share at 33.4% with 5,413 trucks sold, but that represented a 33.5% decrease from 8,137 units solid in September 2024. Western Star saw sales decline 5.8% to 948 units from 1,006.
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“September retail sales continued their decline both month over month and year over year, consistent with our market expectations as fleets navigate ongoing economic headwinds,” said Jonathan Randall, president of Mack Trucks North America. “The combination of persistent freight market weakness, declining construction spending and uncertainty around tariff policy continues to drive fleet caution in what remains a softer economic environment.”
Mack Trucks — the lone manufacturer to see sales rise — reported a sales increase of 32.9% to 1,552 from the 1,168 last year. Volvo Trucks North America sales dropped 40.5% to 1,497 from 2,514. Mack and VTNA are both brands of Volvo Group.
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“It’s no surprise that September sales are down [year over year] and [month to month],” said David Kriete, president of Kriete Truck Centers. “New truck demand continues to feel pressure as most of the key market performance indicators are still stressed.”
Kriete also pointed out that the industry is awaiting clarity on upcoming truck emission regulations from the Environmental Protection Agency for heavy-duty trucks related to its Phase 3 greenhouse gas rule.
“The EPA ’27 hurdle that all OEMs and dealers were planning for is now uncertain, which has absolutely had an impact in the short term on sales demand,” Kriete said. “Tariffs currently in place and tariffs that may still be put in place adds another layer of uncertainty to both the buyers in the truck industry as well as the dealers supplying inventory to the market. When some clarity is seen with [California Air Resources Board], EPA and the tariff situation, I think we can expect sales to rebound, as business should improve for Class 8 truck users.”
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International sales dropped 33.8% to 1,790 from 2,705. Peterbilt Motors Co. sales decreased 19.9% to 2,473 from 3,088. Kenworth Truck Co. sales slid 19.6% to 2,552 from 3,176. Peterbilt and Kenworth are Paccar Inc. brands.
“After a series of record years, fleets are now taking a more cautious and strategic approach to truck investments, balancing replacement needs with the ongoing uncertainties around freight rates, tariffs and the upcoming regulatory changes,” said Magnus Koeck, vice president of strategy, marketing and brand management at VTNA. “The most significant slowdown is in the longhaul segment, where both freight demand and carrier profitability continue to face pressure. However, the market for straight trucks and vocational vehicles are starting to show some signs of the market contracting.”
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