August Class 8 Truck Sales Fall 13% From Prior Year
ACT's Tam Calls Volume a Reflection of the Marketplace
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U.S. Class 8 retail sales continued to trend below the prior-year period with a 13.5% drop in August, according to data from Wards Intelligence. Sales decreased to 17,876 units from 20,671 in August 2024.
The latest figures also showed a 5.1% sequential decrease from the 18,838 units reported in July. Year-to-date sales are down 7% to 144,756 units from 155,576.
“In terms of framing relative to our expectations, you do see, on a sequential basis, the kind of slowdown that we saw from July into August,” ACT Research Vice President Steve Tam said. “That in and of itself is not terribly surprising. The fact that we’re down 13 or 14 percentage points from where we were this time last year, goes back to what’s happening in the marketplace.”
Tam added that the slight freight growth that has occurred hasn’t been enough to offset fleet capacity. This ongoing imbalance, he pointed out, has put pressure on carriers, particularly when it comes to profit because rates are still low. Tam doubts carriers are seeing many opportunities to reinvest as a result.
[September N.A. CV OUTLOOK Update] - Economic and Regulatory Headwinds Reduce Tractor and Vocational Demand
Read more from the September update here: — ACT Research (@actresearch)
“We hear that a lot of the inventory that we’re buying was purchased pre-tariff, and so we’re absorbing that, and once that’s gone, then we’ll really start to see the impact of tariffs on inflation,” Tam said. “But it hasn’t happened yet. And then we’re also hearing stories — mixed reviews I guess — in terms of how the companies are actually handling tariffs.”
Wards showed that six of the seven major truck makers experienced a year-over-year decline. Freightliner, a brand of Daimler Truck North America, claimed the largest market share at 35.5% with 6,347 trucks sold, a 17.1% decrease from 7,654 units the prior year. Western Star, another DTNA brand, saw sales decline 11.2% to 916 units from 1,031.
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“If you annualize the retails and see the retail pace at the moment, we can expect a lower market in 2025 than in 2024, both in the U.S. and in Canada,” said Magnus Koeck, vice president of strategy, marketing and brand management at Volvo Trucks North America. “The retail market for straight trucks is still quite strong, while the over-the-road, and the sleeper market in particular, is significantly slower than in previous years.”
Koeck added that this has implications for Volvo given its focus on the longhaul segment. Incoming orders, he noted, have indicated that the market is struggling due to macroeconomic uncertainties, tariffs and a still-unclear picture of 2027 emissions rules.
“The freight rates are still low, and the profitability for carriers is still also low,” Koeck said. “However, we believe that when the tide will turn, we at Volvo are very well-positioned with our brand-new range of vehicles. Our longhaul, fuel-efficient, VNL tractor has been received very well in the market, and we’re now also starting sales of our regional-haul truck, the Volvo VNR.”
“The retail market for straight trucks is still quite strong, while the over-the-road, and the sleeper market in particular, is significantly slower," VTNA's Magnus Koeck says.(Joe Howard/Transport Topics)
VTNA sales decreased 11.4% to 1,538 units from 1,735. Mack Trucks reported the only increase for the month, with sales rising 8.2% to 1,505 units from 1,391. Mack and VTNA are brands of Volvo Group.
“August retail sales declined both month over month and year over year, though remain aligned with our market expectations given current economic headwinds,” Mack Trucks North America President Jonathan Randall said. “The persistent weakness in freight markets and softening construction spending continues to reinforce fleet caution as economic forecasts suggest below-trend growth.”
International Motors sales declined 8.5% to 2,391 from 2,612. Kenworth Truck Co. sales fell 21.4% to 2,451 units from 3,119, and Peterbilt Motors Co. sales decreased 12.8% to 2,716 units from 3,115. Peterbilt and Kenworth are Paccar Inc. brands.
“The freight market was already pretty sluggish; it has been for a number of years,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst of commercial vehicles at FTR Transportation Intelligence. “T’s already been pass-through on some tariff costs. But there’s probably still a fair amount to go.
“T’s uncertainty related to the EPA 27 NOx regulations, there’s uncertainty related to potential Section 232 tariffs on heavy- and medium-duty trucks, and so on.”
Moyer added that these factors have increased headwinds on retail truck demand. He points out, though, that this has been more pronounced when it comes to truck orders and mentioned that inventories remain elevated to near record levels.
“The market is only facing headwinds right now,” Moyer said. “If there is a tailwind, it would be the order season is about to open up, and maybe there’s some seasonality with retail sales being higher towards the fourth quarter or whatnot, the latter months of the year. That will help numbers increase. Orders, for the most part, retail sales, will go up in the coming months. But on a year-over-year basis, or even year to date, are still likely to be down notably.”
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