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OPEC+ has staved off an oil surplus this year by deciding to restrain production a little longer. But the temporary fix won’t hold back the supply glut awaiting global markets in 2025.

Global oil markets are poised to swing from a deficit to a surplus next quarter should OPEC+ proceed with plans to boost supplies, data from the International Energy Agency showed.

Global oil demand growth slowed to its weakest in more than a year last quarter as the post-pandemic rebound in China fades, the International Energy Agency said.

Key OPEC+ nations Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia continue to pump above output limits intended to shore up global oil prices, the group’s data showed.

OPEC maintained forecasts for strengthening oil demand in the second half of the year, as the group and its allies prepare to revive some halted supplies.

Global oil demand has surged to a record amid robust consumption in China and elsewhere, threatening to push prices higher, the International Energy Agency said.

OPEC’s first oil market outlook for 2023 suggests no relief for squeezed consumers, with more crude needed from the group even though most members are already pumping flat out.

The International Energy Agency cut forecasts for global oil demand “sharply” for the rest of this year as the resurgent pandemic hits major consumers, and predicted a new surplus in 2022.

Global oil demand will recover to pre-pandemic levels late next year, the International Energy Agency predicted, urging OPEC and its allies to keep markets balanced by tapping their plentiful spare production capacity.

OPEC expects demand for its crude oil to rebound sharply next year, surpassing levels seen before the coronavirus crisis, as rival producers struggle to revive output.