WTO Predicts 0.9% Increase in Global Goods Trade
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The World Trade Organization predicted subdued global merchandise trade this year and next, saying activity remains clouded by President Donald Trump’s tariffs on U.S. imports, while lifting its estimate for 2025.
After a 2.9% gain in 2024, global goods trade will increase by 0.9% this year, compared with an April forecast for a 0.2% decline, the Geneva-based trade body said in a report Aug. 8. The upward revision was attributed to a rush by American importers to stockpile products, parts and raw materials before the bulk of Trump’s higher levies took effect.
The WTO said that next year, goods trade will rise 1.8%, less than the 2.5% rebound seen four months ago.
“The shadow of tariff uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on business confidence, investment and supply chains,” said Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the WTO director general. “Uncertainty remains one of the most disruptive forces in the global trading environment.”
She added that “it is important that a broader cycle of tit-for-tat retaliation that could be very damaging to global trade has so far been avoided.”
FORECAST UPDATE: Global goods trade to grow +0.9% in 2025 and +1.8% in 2026. DG notes broader tit-for-tat retaliation has been avoided but warns the full tariff impact is still unfolding. More: — WTO (@wto)
The Trump administration has rolled out so-called reciprocal tariffs on countries that run counter to the principles of the WTO — a 30-year-old institution that oversees the rules of cross-border commerce while shunning high tariffs or favoritism in their use.
Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, sought to declare the start of a new international trading system in an op-ed published this week in The New York Times.
The current system under the WTO “is untenable and unsustainable,” he wrote. “In a few short months, the United States secured more foreign market access than it had in years of fruitless WTO negotiations.”
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