Global Trade Activity Slows After Tariff-Driven Surge
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The International Monetary Fund is seeing signs that the rise in trade and activity to front-run U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs is beginning to unwind as the global economy still faces heightened uncertainty.
Recent trade pacts Washington reached with China and the UK to lower tariffs, as well as the White House decision April 9 to pause some of Trump’s highest duties, are a “bit of a positive sign for economic activity,” spokeswoman Julie Kozack said June 12 in a briefing. But data showing slowing activity and doubling of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum create a “complicated picture,” she said.
“Nonetheless, we do have an outlook for the global economy that remains subject to heightened uncertainty, especially as trade negotiations continue,” she said. “We are in an environment of very high uncertainty, and uncertainty in general tends to dampen economic activity.”
U.S. data earlier this month showed the largest-ever plunge in imports during April, signaling an abrupt end to the massive front-loading of goods by some firms ahead of higher tariffs.
The fund will release an update of its World Economic Outlook in July. In its April estimates, the IMF lowered its forecast for global gross domestic product growth to 2.8%, from 3.3%.
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