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Model year 2023 sleeper tractors averaged $96,735 at auction in April, 20.5% higher than in March, according to Chris Visser of J.D. Power. (Palmer Truck Sales)

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Uncertainty continues to cloud the retail sales and orders outlook for truck makers for the rest of 2025, according to observers.

When demand will pick up is the million-dollar question, said during a reporter roundtable April 29.

“How do you polish this crystal ball?” he asked. Clarity on the demand picture will emerge over the next two or three months, he noted, saying International has seen cancellations, which is something the truck maker has not witnessed in four or five years. “We are close to the bottom. The question is how long the bottom lasts. There will be zero pre-buy.”

Recent uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs and the stricter emissions legislation was leading U.S. customers to adopt a “wait-and-see approach,” Volvo Group, the parent company of Volvo Trucks North America and Mack Trucks, said when releasing its first-quarter earnings April 23.

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CEO Carlbaum says International Motors is seeing cancellations for the first time in four or five years. (Seth Clevenger/Transport Topics)

The parent company of Kenworth and Peterbilt is awaiting greater clarity with a positive mindset.

“In the second half of the year, we anticipate increased customer demand as policy and emissions regulations become more stable,” said during the company’s Q1 earnings call.

Some fleets cannot wait, however, as aging, inefficient rolling stock tends to spend more time at the side of the road and can take a hefty bite out of margins. The used truck market is benefiting as a result.

Model year 2023 sleeper tractors averaged $96,735 at auction in April, some $16,472 or 20.5% higher than in March, according to Chris Visser, director of specialty vehicles at J.D. Power.

“If you were bidding for sleeper tractors at auctions in April, you probably noticed fewer trucks available. And if you were looking for trucks with low mileage, so was everyone else, judging by hammer prices for those trucks,” Visser said in a .

“Overall, supply was tighter and pricing was higher, as end users traded out of their older trucks to take advantage of what could be the last of pre-tariff, pull-ahead freight activity,” he added.

And when it comes to retail sales, some OEMs are better positioned than others, according to Melius Research founding partner Rob Wertheimer.

“Tariffs are clouding most everything else this year,” he wrote in an April 29 research note, noting that Kenworth and Peterbilt were likely to introduce price hikes in the second quarter.

“The Trump administration recently launched a Section 232 investigation into truck production and supply chain, which could provide tariff relief, and possibly a relative benefit to Paccar, given higher percentage of production in Mexico from competitors Daimler and Traton (with Volvo having planned to move production to Mexico as well),” Wertheimer added.

However, the analyst warned that all bets are off on truck demand if there is a recession as a result of the tariffs and other macroeconomic concerns.

Meanwhile, carrier executives remain more optimistic than might be expected, according to the latest Bloomberg-Truckstop survey of owner-operators and small fleet carriers.

Some 65% believe that tariffs may hinder the industry, but a majority remain optimistic about short-term, with 62% expecting sustained demand and 55% bullish about rate growth.

“Carriers aren’t turning a blind eye to the potential volatility that could arise from tariffs,” said Lee Klaskow, senior freight transportation and logistics analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “However, most carriers believe rates and volumes still have some room to grow, and many believe that the worst of the challenging freight conditions may be over.”