Ongoing Uncertainty Hampers Truck Orders in October
Orders Decline 21% Year Over Year to 24,500 Units
Key Takeaways:
- North American Class 8 truck orders fell about 21% year over year in October to roughly 24,500 units, marking an unusually weak month despite a sequential gain.
- Analysts said persistent freight softness, low carrier profitability, tariff uncertainty and questions around 2027 emissions rules are keeping fleets cautious and delaying new truck purchases.
- Forecasts from ACT and FTR suggest uneven order trends will continue as manufacturers face limited visibility and fleets wait for freight volumes and rates to improve.
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North American Class 8 truck orders experienced an unusually weak October as economic uncertainty continued to weigh on carriers, .
Preliminary data showed orders decreased 21% year over year to 24,500 units but posted a 17.8% sequential gain from the 20,800 units reported for September.
“This is the time of year when next year’s backlogs get built,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “Rising costs, still weak spot rates and ongoing uncertainty continue to hamper for-hire carriers, and, as a result, have led to a muted order season to date. Additionally, private fleet demand has slowed after recent expansion.”
Monthly orders data has been trending below the prior-year results since the start of the year. ACT noted that the October results were notably weak considering the month is often the strongest from a seasonal perspective.
President Donald Trump’s tariff-focused approach to international trade has created uncertainty for both manufacturers and buyers of trucks. His administration has also discussed the possibility of rolling back upcoming truck emissions regulations set to take effect in 2027.
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“The North American truck market continues to face headwinds, with October industry orders in the U.S. and Canada totaling around 21,900 units, compared to about 27,700 in October last year,” said Magnus Koeck, vice president of strategy, marketing and brand management at Volvo Trucks North America. “The October order numbers were significantly higher than the September numbers, but I believe that’s an effect of several OEMs still [having] slots open to fill Q4. The trucking industry is still finding its footing, with tariffs, uncertainty around the EPA 2027 emission regulations, soft freight demand, and low profitability for the carriers.”
Koeck noted this uncertainty is compelling fleets to hold onto trucks longer and delay new equipment purchases.
(Act Research)
“October’s preliminary orders showed modest sequential improvement but remain below prior-year levels, reflecting the continued caution we’re seeing across both freight and construction sectors,” said Jonathan Randall, president of Mack Trucks North America. “While we typically expect Q4 to bring increased fleet planning activity for the coming year, the current ordering environment aligns with historical downturns as carriers navigate persistent profitability pressures and builders adjust to softening residential and commercial demand.”
Class 8 preliminary net orders for October decreased 22% to 24,300 units, the 10th consecutive month of year-over-year declines. However, on a sequential basis orders rose 18%. FTR noted that the outsized impact of weakness in the on-highway market reflects sustained fleet caution heading into 2026.
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“Early indicators for the 2026 order cycle reinforce this cautious outlook,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst of commercial vehicles at FTR. “Combined net orders for September and October are 32% below year-ago levels, highlighting persistent weakness in freight fundamentals and limited carrier profitability. The month-over-month uptick in October likely reflects targeted replacement activity rather than renewed investment.”
Moyer warned that visibility remains limited for truck manufacturers and suppliers and expects order trends to stay uneven until freight volumes and rates improve. He also noted that fleets are focused on cost control and asset utilization as they wait for economic and market conditions to stabilize, which is delaying a meaningful rebound in equipment demand.
“For the industry, the new tariffs on heavy-duty trucks that are taking effect this month will raise costs but are less severe and more targeted than expected,” Moyer said. “[U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement] carve-outs, offsets, and the delayed parts tariff create a measured policy that encourages reshoring and strengthens North American supply chains. Some production appears to be already shifting toward U.S. assembly, though expanding capacity will take time.”
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