Class 8 Truck Orders Slide 44% as Tariffs Strain
Fleets Delay Purchases as Trade Tensions and Inflation Squeeze Demand
Key Takeaways:
- North American Class 8 truck orders fell 44% year over year in September to about 20,800 units as tariffs and weak freight demand weighed on the market.
- Analysts said the downturn reflects ongoing pressure from trade tensions, low carrier profitability and uncertainty over new emission regulations.
- The industry faces further disruption as a 25% U.S. tariff on imported heavy-duty trucks takes effect Oct. 1, with fleets expected to delay purchases and costs likely to rise.
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North American Class 8 truck orders remained below prior-year results as tariffs continued to squeeze an already stressed transportation sector in September, according to analysts.
showed orders decreased 44% year over year to 20,800 units. But they increased 57.6% from the 13,200 units reported in August. Adjusting for seasonality, orders totaled 18,800 units.
“On a six- and 12-month basis, orders continue to trend down, at [178,000] and [235,000], respectively,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “The longest for-hire downturn in history continues to weigh on tractor demand as freight rates continue to run below inflation levels. And even as more tariffs are imposed, the nation awaits a verdict on [International Emergency Economic Powers Act] tariffs in a case the Supreme Court will hear in early November.”
(ACT Research)
Vieth also pointed out that the industry is still awaiting an announcement from the Environmental Protection Agency on the future of its planned emission regulation. The agency previously announced that it is reconsidering its heavy-duty truck emissions regulations related to its Phase 3 Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards.
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“The North American truck market continues to show weakness, with September industry orders in U.S. and Canada coming in just north of 19,000 units compared to about 34,500 in September last year,” said Magnus Koeck, vice president of strategy, marketing and brand management at Volvo Trucks North America. “The straight truck market remains relatively strong, but over-the-road — and the sleeper segment in particular — is significantly weaker than in previous years.”
Koeck added that customers are allowing their fleets to age while navigating ongoing uncertainty around inflation, tariffs and the upcoming emission regulations. He pointed out that the annualized pace for orders is significantly slower than the market last year, with carrier profitability remaining low. He also has seen fleets continue to prioritize efficiency and uptime at the same time, making safety and connectivity features more important than ever.
“While the market is clearly under pressure today, our confidence in the long term remains strong,” Koeck said. “Volvo is well positioned with our brand-new range of vehicles: the fuel-efficient VNL, which has been very well received, and the regional-haul VNR, now entering sales, both supported by advanced connectivity that helps customers stay competitive.”
FTR Transportation Intelligence reported similar results, with Class 8 preliminary net orders for September decreasing 41% year over year to 20,500 units. This marked the ninth consecutive month that trended below the prior year. But the report also showed a sequential increase of 60%. It concluded that orders falling well below the 10-year average for the month underscores fleet hesitancy amid trade tensions, tariff uncertainty and broader headwinds.
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“On Sept. 25, President Trump announced on social media a 25% Section 232 tariff on imported heavy-duty trucks,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst of commercial vehicles at FTR. Oct. 1 was the original effective date for the tariff, but that has since been pushed back to Nov. 1. “It remains unclear ... whether the tariff also covers medium-duty trucks, parts or [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement]-compliant imports.”
Moyer added that the news already has rattled fleets, truck manufacturers and suppliers coping with weak demand, rising costs and fragile supply chains, with the tariff adding to an already difficult trade environment. He also pointed out that steel, aluminum and copper duties remain at 50%, so component costs further complicate sourcing.
“The immediate effect will be higher truck prices, assuming the tariff is officially implemented,” Moyer said. “Imported Class 8 trucks will face a 25% surcharge, and U.S.-built models may see added costs from imported parts. Some fleets are likely to delay or cancel orders, boosting demand for used trucks as operators extend vehicle life cycles. Reshoring may accelerate, but U.S. factories are hampered by labor constraints, high costs and infrastructure limits. In the near term, the market faces higher prices, supply chain disruptions and ongoing uncertainty.”
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