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A DHL warehouse. DHL just finished a $120 million expansion at its Querétaro air hub. (DHL)

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Oversized flags from three countries dominate Oscar Del Cueto Cuevas’ office in Mexico City: one from the U.S., another from Mexico and the last from Canada.

For the president of Canadian Pacific Kansas City’s Mexico operations, the flags are a symbol of CPKC’s $31 billion bet on a deeply intertwined North American economy, one that seems to be paying off in the face of President Donald Trump’s tariff war.

In March, as Trump escalated threats of sweeping new duties on Mexican and Canadian imports, Del Cueto was unfazed. “Our position is that we will continue our investments,” he said at the time. “They will not be stopped by this issue.”

One month later, after Trump excluded Mexico from the latest round of retaliatory tariffs, Del Cueto appears to have been proven right — and he’s not the only one.

Rather than pulling back, major logistics and shipping players are doubling down on Mexico. Even with political risks and economic headwinds, the U.S.’ southern neighbor remains a critical link in the North American supply chain.

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Echo Global opened a headquarters in Mexico City in March. (Echo Global)

DHL just finished a $120 million expansion at its Querétaro air hub, according to a company representative, making it the largest DHL Express shipping center in Latin America. CPKC is launching a refrigerated train service to move produce north and protein south. And U.S. freight management firm Echo Global Logistics Inc. opened new headquarters in Mexico City in March, with plans to double its cross-border shipping volume.

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Echo ranks No. 22��on the��Transport Topics Top 100 list of the largest logistics companies��in North America and ranks��No. 5 among freight brokers.

“I think we’ll see more growth in regional trade even though early indications were that this was going to have a negative impact for Mexico and Canada,” Troy Ryley, Echo’s Mexico president, said in reference to U.S. tariffs. “We’re not slowing down. If anything, the discussions are more about how we can accelerate growth.”

Trump’s return to the tariff lever has rattled global markets, but Mexico is enjoying something of a rare exemption, at least for now. Earlier this month, the U.S. left Mexico and Canada off a new list of retaliatory tariffs hitting imports from most of the world, instead keeping them on a 25% tariff that fully excludes goods traded under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA. A separate 25% auto tariff remains in place, though it applies only to foreign-made portions of a car shipped under the USMCA.

Markets responded swiftly. The Mexican peso strengthened following the announcement, and Mexico’s stock market surged to its highest level since July. HSBC strategists including Alastair Pinder said in an April 9 note that higher U.S. tariffs elsewhere make Mexico an even more attractive investment destination.

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CPKC is launching a refrigerated train service to move produce north and protein south. (CPKC)

But the growth is tempered by broader challenges. Mexico’s central bank is weighing the possibility of a recession, and under the baseline scenario, it’s predicting the economy will grow a meager 0.6% in 2025.

Prolonged tariff uncertainty hasn’t helped investor sentiment. Some businesses are under pressure from the Mexican government to reduce imports from Asia, while others have scaled back expansion plans due to concerns they could be targeted with new export fees.

Still, companies like DHL say they’re pushing forward. “We’ve got a business to run and we’ve got customers to help with their supply chain. So there’s no time for being pessimistic about tariffs,” DHL Express CEO John Pearson said.

The expanded Querétaro air hub can now process as many as 41,000 packages an hour and the facility has become a key node in DHL’s regional network, per the company representative.

Pearson previously told Bloomberg that he expects demand for express shipping to grow this year. “Trade is very resilient, and don’t underestimate the creativity of buyers and sellers who want to do business together.”

CPKC is betting big on that resilience. The railway operator plans to invest $240 million in Mexico this year, Del Cueto said, expanding facilities and terminals along its 20,000-mile track through the U.S., Canada and Mexico. It’s also investing heavily in intermodal transport such as its newly launched Mexico Midwest Express, which offers single-line service connecting Mexico to the U.S. Midwest.

“We just inaugurated the second railway bridge in Nuevo Laredo, which will allow us greater commercial exchange capacity, and the projects we have in Monterrey, in San Luis Potosí, and in the Bajío region continue, so we are not changing our capital investment perspective,” Del Cueto said. “We are betting that the volume of freight movement by rail will grow.”

Echo is expanding as well. The company is investing $10 million to build out its cross-border trucking operations, including new facilities and technology to speed up freight processing. In the first quarter of 2025, Ryley said Echo’s Mexico business grew by more than 20% compared to the previous quarter as companies raced to move goods ahead of possible tariff hikes.

“What you’re seeing is USMCA businesses and companies that truly have U.S.-Mexico-Canadian origin materials and parts are going to be at an advantage compared to the majority of the world,” Ryley said. “In general, for everyone who’s focused on North American manufacturing, North American trade, this situation bodes well for continued growth.”