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“The latest wave of tariffs is creating ripple effects across both imports and exports,” Danaf said. (Eric Thayer/Bloomberg)

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The slowdown of U.S. imports due to tariffs is expected to have downstream effects on the rest of the supply chain, including trucking, according to experts.

President Donald Trump has made tariffs a cornerstone of his foreign trade agenda. This included sweeping tariff actions against numerous countries April 2. But much of that was postponed a week later except for a 10% baseline tariff and an especially high rate of 145% on China. The result has been uncertainty, volatile imports and retaliatory tariffs.

“The latest wave of tariffs is creating ripple effects across both imports and exports,” said Mazen Danaf, senior economist at Uber Freight. “We’re observing a slowdown in imports, particularly for non-essential goods. While national truckload volumes remain relatively stable, spot volumes have clearly decreased. More broadly across the industry, some manufacturers are beginning to pause imports and even slow production at certain U.S. facilities.”

Danaf added that some shippers are exploring new sourcing regions or reshoring strategies. But he also pointed out that such shifts take time. He expects continued softness in freight demand in the near term, especially at major coastal ports and intermodal hubs.

“The immediate impact is seen on the [business-to-consumer] sales via the popular e-commerce platforms,” Phani Reddy, assistant vice president of product management at E2open, said in a written response. “With changes to the de minimis provision (also known as section 321 in U.S.), the need for formal entry process has increased.”

Reddy added that the additional tariffs on goods from China resulted in a lot more scrutiny and a spike in brokerage companies working to get shipments across the border. But companies have not yet decided to pass that additional cost to customers, he noted.

“Bilateral trade negotiations in the coming months [are] expected to ease the situation a bit,” Reddy said. “There are short-term ‘re-sourcing’ possibilities expected to minimize the impact of tariffs, that too [are] not expected in weeks, likely months to come.”

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A ship arrives at the Port of Los Angeles. (Eric Thayer/Bloomberg)

TD Cowen reported that port freight volumes fell 30% to 40% on the West Coast in the month since the main round of tariffs. They were also down 10% to 15% on the Gulf and East coasts. This decline followed a surge in demand from earlier efforts to frontload cargo ahead of the tariffs. The financial services firm also recently held a call to discuss the ports with shipping, freight forwarding and drayage executives who said their customers are taking a wait-and-see approach.

“Our panelist believes a signed trade deal soon is unlikely, and a deal needs to be done by the next 30-45 days to avoid supply chain bottlenecks and empty shelves for peak holiday season,” TD Cowen analyst Jason Seidl wrote. “Freight recovery lags by 4-6 weeks of ocean bookings data, which is the key data point to watch for signs of life. Near-term impacts (assuming deals are made in near-term) should be less than COVID.”

Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka has been making the rounds on different news networks warning about the impacts of tariffs. He even closed out last month warning of a 35% year-over-year decline in volumes for that week based on loadings from Asia.

“For the last few years we’ve seen a lot of companies transition out of China already,” said Glenn Koepke, vice president of enterprise accounts at Vector. “So, the tariffs specific to China and the U.S. trade relations aren’t as significant as an impact as they would’ve been, call it five to 10 years ago.”

Koepke added the U.S. is still very reliant on China for raw materials and other hard goods even with those changes. He has also seen the slowdown in imports, but he largely attributes that to the frontloading efforts bringing much of that cargo in early. He has also seen other companies being willing to risk higher prices later on as they wait for clarity.

“We’re witnessing only the leading edge of tariff disruptions, with ocean freight bookings from China down 60%,” said Shana Wray, principal solutions consultant at FourKites. “Given the 38.5+ day transit times from Asia, the full physical impact is still moving through the system. It is difficult to tell the full effect at this time, as many companies have been actively planning to avoid disruptions to the supply chain, dating back to the disruptions caused by COVID-19.”

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Trucks in line to enter the U.S. at the World Trade Bridge port of entry in Laredo, Texas, in February. (Cheney Orr/Bloomberg)

Wray highlighted how customers have been implementing strategies like nearshoring and diversification since the coronavirus shutdowns. They have since been able to shift production and ramp up exports from countries with lower tariffs. She has also seen that eliminating the de minimis exemptions has resulted in some online platforms pivoting to local fulfillment.

“This creates a fascinating counterbalance where trans-Pacific container volumes plummet while domestic warehousing and regional distribution needs potentially increase as inventory relocates to avoid the tariff wall,” Wray said. “Trucking faces a complex scenario of potentially reduced import volumes alongside demonstrably rising input costs.”

Wray expressed particular concern over what she views as strategic paralysis rippling through supply chains. She noted that the sheer unpredictability of the current trade environment makes it difficult for businesses to commit to long-term network redesigns.

“Businesses were caught by surprise, by the scope and the scale of the initial announcements of tariffs,” said Jackson Wood, director of industry strategy for global trade intelligence at Descartes. “And then subsequently through April, particularly as it relates to trade with China, the tariffs have been significant, and you have heard a lot of rhetoric of companies talking about pausing shipments, stopping shipments, rerouting shipments.”