Logistics Leaders Urge Resilience as Costs Climb
Supply Chain Spending Tops $2.58 Trillion With Economy Slowing
Key Takeaways:
- Supply chain leaders at the CSCMP 2025 Edge Conference said the U.S. economy remains below potential but continues to avoid recession as consumer spending stays resilient.
- The 2025 State of Logistics Report showed freight spending rose 5.4% year over year to $2.58 trillion while motor carrier costs fell 0.7%, reflecting uneven recovery and tariff pressures.
- Panelists said logistics leaders are prioritizing resilience, AI adoption and nearshoring to Mexico as tariffs on China and market uncertainty reshape global trade patterns.
[Stay on top of transportation news: .]
OXON HILL, Md. — Supply chain professionals said consumers and businesses are proving remarkably resilient amid a topsy-turvy economic environment and urged their colleagues across the transportation and logistics sectors to follow that example as they chart a path forward out of a challenging year.
“Overall, the economy is one that’s performing below its potential,” said Paul Bingham, director of transportation consulting at S&P Global Market Intelligence, during an Oct. 7 panel at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals’ . “The growth this year is going to be less than it was last year in the U.S. economy. And yet, [the] forecast is not for a recession. Consumers have been remarkably resilient in their spending this year. Their sentiment and attitudes aren’t very strong, but [with] their wallets they continue to spend.”
The panel discussed the findings of , which found that supply chain leaders are increasingly working to make their networks more financially and operationally resilient as they navigate ongoing market uncertainty. Penske Logistics and consulting firm Kearney partnered with CSCMP on the report.
Penske Logistics ranks No. 19 on the Transport Topics Top 100 list of the largest logistics companies in North AmericaԻ No. 12 on the TT Top 100 list of the largest for-hire carriers in North America.
“The previous report found an industry waiting for the tide to turn and navigating the uncertainty,” Korhan Acar, partner at Kearney, said during the panel. “This year we all came here hoping to say that the fog has now started to dissipate, but instead it further thickened.”
He added, “ ‘Liberation Day’ was a part of that,” a reference to President Donald Trump’s April 2 spate of tariffs on U.S. trading partners, “and an uncertain demand recovery was a big part of that. At this time, logistics leaders must treat resilience not as a luxury, but a strategic necessity embedded in their thinking, strategy and technology.”
This year’s report found that annual expenditures associated with moving freight through the supply chain grew 5.4% year over year to $2.58 trillion in 2024 compared with 2023. This represented 8.8% of the nominal gross domestic product. The report also found that motor carrier expenditures declined 0.7% year over year.
More From CSCMP
“There’s a shaking out … in the market, and carriers are facing a tougher road right now,” said Andy Moses, senior vice president of solutions and sales strategy at Penske Logistics. “Costs continue to rise, our rates are flattish, and so that’s not a fun recipe.”
Bingham noted that interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve can lift positive consumer trends, as could potential fiscal stimulus from tax and monetary reform passed this summer.
But he warned that tariff-fueled inflation could peak early next year above the Fed’s preferred target of 2% annual growth.
Bingham said that if tariffs don’t continue to increase, the impact will result in a one-time price adjustment to a higher level, but the rate of inflation should decline by the end of next year.“But we’re going to peak at about 3.4% inflation.”
Moses stressed that there is still plenty of freight to move, and he and others noted that technological tools exist to help move it more efficiently.
“Digital brokers are using AI to eliminate waste, to automate things, to raise their margins despite the fact that they’re not adding people,” said Michael Zimmerman, a partner at Kearney. “There are countless examples of good use cases of AI helping with visibility, with procurement, with freight auditing and pay. And what they’re doing — and I heard this just in the lecture before this — I’m turning my analysts into strategists.”
Want more news? Listen to today's daily briefing above or go here for more info
A strategic trend being propelled by Trump’s tariffs is nearshoring, which is continuing despite the tighter freight conditions and uncertain outlook.
“I follow very closely the imports that come from Mexico compared to the imports that come from China,” said Javier Zarazua, managing partner at JL Nearshoring Mexico. “Year to date, through June, Mexico’s imports grew 6% into the United States, and China went down by 16%. But I ran the numbers again. I was surprised to see that, as of July, year to date, compared to last year, Mexico’s import went up 1%. That means now we’re 7% year over year, and I was even more surprised to see … China’s imports went down 19%.”
Zarazua traces this trend to tariff increases on China that started in 2018. But he noted that the more recent tariffs combined with lessons learned during the coronavirus pandemic further incentivized U.S. companies to move closer to home.
