Fleet Margins Set to Shrink Again in 2025, CSCMP Finds
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Fleet margins are likely to be squeezed even tighter in 2025, according to the annual .
Spot and contract rates are unlikely to rebound for for-hire fleets in 2025 and neither will demand, while costs will rise, said carriers, shippers and analysts surveyed by consulting firm Kearney for the .
Margins — especially for owner-operators — were down to the bone a year ago and the past 12 months , the report’s lead author, Korhan Acar, told Transport Topics.
Tariffs introduced by the Trump administration, and the consequent aversion to risk, are a major reason why there is no clear trajectory for recovery, the study’s authors warned.
Most U.S. imports of steel and aluminum became subject to 50% tariffs June 4.
Imports of the key metals for building homes, commercial buildings, roads, trucks and trailers were already subject to a 25% tariff under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. The Trump administration introduced the tariff March 12.
Volvo Group units Volvo Trucks North America and Mack Trucks hiked the prices of their vehicles in May following the March introduction of the tariffs. VTNA and Mack’s peers have also said prices will rise as a result of the tariffs.
Additional minimum 10% tariffs on all goods imported from around the globe, plus higher levies on shipments from specific nations, are set to increase prices on all manner of consumer items in the U.S., crimp American exports and hobble demand for the services of for-hire carriers.
The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development on June 3 cut its global GDP growth outlook for both 2025 and 2026 to 2.9% as a result of the Trump administration’s trade policy and the reciprocal actions of its peers.
U.S. GDP is set to increase 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, according to the latest OECD forecast, compared with March projections of 2.2% and 1.6%.
Inflation in the U.S. is set to average 3.2% in 2025, compared with 2.5% in 2024, the data shows. In March, the OECD expected 2.8% U.S. price inflation in 2025.
Further price increases may be on the way, too.
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American Trucking Associations in May warned against further Section 232 tariffs on imports of medium- and heavy-duty trucks and parts as a result of an investigation launched in April.
More than a third of U.S. commercial vehicles are sourced from Canada and Mexico.
ACT Research has cut its Class 8 demand expectations to 255,100 due to the existing tariffs.
In a revised outlook issued May 9, S&P Global Mobility Executive Director, Global Heavy Truck Research Andrej Divis said he expects a 9% hike in retail truck prices, which could cut 17% of new commercial vehicle demand in 2025.
As a result of the tariffs and the subsequent uncertainty, the report’s authors said the trucking industry finds itself suspended in midair.
A modest market correction was seen in 2024, they said. Since the start of 2025, the economic picture has become more uncertain.
That comes after carrier profitability in 2024 was the lowest since 2010.
DAT Freight & Analytics data shows the national average spot rate for dry van shipments in April was $1.96 per mile, down 1.5% from $1.99 per mile in April 2024. Contract rates averaged $2.40 per mile in April 2025, the data shows, down 2.4% from $2.46 per mile in April 2024.
(DAT Freight & Analytics)
Carrier capacity remained higher than ideal throughout 2024, despite some signs of rationalization.
Rates had been expected to increase at the start of 2025, but the escalating geopolitical tensions and new trade policies scotched those hopes, the report authors said.
No significant increases in rates can be expected in 2025 as a material rebound in shipping volumes is unlikely and competition remains fierce, they advised.
Without growth catalysts such as improved manufacturing activity, construction or consumer spending, freight demand is set to stagnate, the authors found.
Meanwhile, increased equipment costs may force fleets to either extend the life of aging rolling stock — leading to higher maintenance expenses — or absorb elevated capital expenditures to replace vehicles, they warned.
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Acar, a partner in the strategic operations practice of Kearney, told TT that shippers said they were choosing not to seek lower rates given the current freight environment.
Instead, he said, they sought other key performance indicator improvements, including service levels such as on-time rates.
“Trying to squeeze rates more is going to create an unhealthy impact on carriers,” he said.
Freight market fortunes are unlikely to turn around in 2025, Acar said.
“I’m hoping 2026 is the year we see an uptick in transportation activity,” he added.
The study is sponsored by Penske Logistics.
