Trump-China Soybean Feud Leaves US Farmers With Few Buyers
China Has Not Booked a Single Shipment From This Fall's Huge US Crop
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This fall, U.S. farmers are harvesting a soybean crop so immense, it coversmore acresthan New Mexico. And their biggest buyer —China —has walked away.
Beijing imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. farm goods in March, effectively slamming the door shut on U.S. soybean imports for commercial buyers before the harvest even began. The move has given Chinaleverage in its trade war with President Donald Trump by squeezing the farmers who form a key part of his base. A country that last year purchased $13 billion of U.S. beans—more than 20% of the entire crop — for animal feed and cooking oil officially still hasn’t bookeda single shipmentfrom this fall’s bounty.
Seeking a trade deal, Trump and hiscounterpart Xi Jinping areexpected to meet next week. Butwith days to go, the summit still isn’t a sure thing.
Criticizing Trump doesn’t come easily to many farmers. But as soybeanspile up in silos and storage bins, it’s hard not to feel like collateral damage in a fight they didn’t pick. They worry that even if a deal is reached, the war will inflict lasting harm, with China determined to buy more soy from Brazil and Argentina rather than dependon the U.S.And while they’d accept government financial help duringthe trade fight, they’d rather be able to sell their beans.
( - Truth Social Post )
( Donald J. Trump - Oct 14, 2025, 3:37 PM ET )
I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering termina… — Donald J Trump Posts TruthSocial (@TruthTrumpPost)
“There’s a lot on the line for both countries, and we’re all better off when we are finding ways to work together than when we are in this trade war,”said Kentucky farmer Caleb Ragland, who is also president of the American Soybean Association. He noted that rural Americans have been among Trump’s strongest supporters and need help now.
“We encourage President Trump and Xi to prioritize sitting down,” Ragland said.“We believe there is still opportunity to work things outbut need them to get to the negotiating table and work out a fair and durable trade agreement that brings certainty back to the market.”
Trump has noticed. On social media this month, he branded Beijing’s effective soybean boycott “an Economically Hostile Act,” and he has made restoring soy purchases one of his main demands in the trade talks. The administration is also pursuing deals with other countries to buy more U.S. soy, although industry officials doubt any such agreements could fill the hole left by China. And Agriculture SecretaryBrooke Rollins said this weekthe government would resumedistributing $3 billionin aid from theFarm Service Agencythat had been halted by the ongoing federalshutdown.
“Our farmers have been boycotted by China as a negotiating point —I don't want that,” Trump told reporters Oct. 19on Air Force One. “Our farmers are great, and in particular, our soybean farmers, and I want them to start buying soybeans, at least in the amount that they were buying before.”
But adeal reached next week or month would still leave much of this fall’s crop stranded. Chinese crushers have alreadycovered most of their supply needsfor this year and are working on the next, according to brokers and traders who track the industry there.
China’s soybean strategy isn’t without risk. A heavier reliance on Brazil means higher costs and greater exposure to weather patternsin South America. There’s also the possibility that a deal with Trump could unleash a sudden flood of U.S. beans into China, pushing down prices for Chinese processors. Soybean meal prices in the country are already sliding on speculation that talks could prompt a return of US cargoes.
Beijing’s long-term goal, however, remains diversification —lessening dependence on its top geopolitical rival. And China has plenty of other soy supplies it can tap.Vanderlei Silva Ataides, a farmer in the Brazilian state of Pará, says the world may in fact be facing an oversupply. While he welcomes China’s increased interest in his country’s crop, he and his fellow growers still strugglewith thin margins and high interest rates.
“I think we’re growing too much soy, and there’s too much of the stuff out there,” he said.
In the U.S., farmers aren’t the only peoplehit by Beijing’s soybean diplomacy. At this time of year, railcars loaded with soy should be rolling from the Great Plains and Midwest to West Coast ports, with the oilseed stored in elevators there before being loaded on ships. Roughly 25 million metric tons sailedbetween the two countries last year. Suddenly, that isn’t happening.
A farmer checks harvested ground for missed soybeans near Trenton, Mo. (Clayton Steward/Bloomberg)
“North Dakota, Minnesota and South Dakota were built to load shuttle trains to go to the (Pacific Northwest) for the Asian market —no ifs, ands or buts about it,” said Eric Larson, general manager of the James Valley Grain storage and handling cooperative in North Dakota. “This year, that’s nonexistent.”
Instead, his cooperative has loaded two trains full of soy bound for Mexico, and another whose cargo ultimately went to Bangladesh. Neither country, however, can replace China. The break has been so complete that no Chinese trade groups visited James Valley Grain this harvest, Larson said, whereas the cooperative usually hosts at least one. He misses talking withthem.
“All of this is geopolitical, that we have no control over,” he said with frustration. “When a tweet comes out, it just make it even worse.”
Soy farmers knew something like this might happen.Beijing halted purchases of U.S. supplies of the oilseed several times during Trump’s first term, as the two countries wrestled over trade. The country thenmadea surprise purchaseof 3 million metric tons ahead of a meeting between Xi and President Joe Biden, a move widely seen as a goodwill gesture.
“In 2018, 2019, we definitely got a preview of what this would be like,” said Kurt Haarmann, chief executive of grain shipper Columbia Grain International. “We hoped all along that negotiations would bring about an agreement that would not put us in a similar situation, but we do find ourselves there.”
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Some farmers planted less soy this year in anticipation of a spat, while others tried to line up buyers earlier than usual. South Dakota farmer Steve Swanhorst forward-sold about 40% of his soybean crop during the summer, anticipating that trade turmoil would hurt prices.
“I thought, you know, I better sell when I could still make some money,” he said. He’s debating whether to shift some of his acreage to corn next year, a common survival strategy.
U.S. soy prices have not collapsed, despite Beijing’s effective boycott. But with futures hovering around $10.30 per bushel they’re not at a level where farmers can make much profit, even when they have buyers. Tariffs on steel andaluminum are raising costs for equipment makers, keeping machine and part prices high.
For some, the combination of trade war, inflation and low commodity prices brings echoes of past tough eras on American farms. Illinois grower John Bartman likens the situation to the 1980s when he was growing up —a time when inflation, high interest rates and low exports led to a full-blown farming crisis. Many families dropped out of the industry altogether. “I’ve basically spent my lifetime studying and looking at the economic cycles and what happens to farmers, and what happens during a poor farm economy,” said Bartman, 47. “And that’s what’s happening here.”
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He at least has a buyer for most of his soybeans, recently harvested from rolling fields northwest of Chicago. He’s still angry at Trump. “What he’s been trying to do has been absolutely terrible for the farming community,” said Bartman. “Our whole current system depends on one thing, and that’s demand. If we don’t have demand, then farm income goes down the toilet.”
Many farmers would like to see the U.S. develop other export markets, and some see potential in using more beans for biofuels. But they acknowledge that such shifts take years —not much help ifyour current crop is stuck in a warehouse or sitting under tarps.
“When such a large percentage of the U.S. crop is export-based, there are parts of an ‘America first’ agenda that don’t entirely work for agriculture,” said Haarmann at Columbia Grain. “It’s great to drive American production, but that production has got to go somewhere.”
