New Economic Reports Offer More Positive News
These reports will likely be closely scrutinized by the Federal Reserve as it begins its two-day meeting on Tuesday. Reuters reported that this positive news has some analysts now expecting a quarter-point reduction in interest rates when the Fed announces its decision on Wednesday.
A rise in durable goods orders, which are manufactured goods expected to last at least three years, could increase the amount of goods produced by U.S. factories for shipment by dry van and flatbed trucks.
The consumer confidence index is also important because it is a measure of consumer sentiment about the economy and future expectations, and confidence levels drive retail demand.
The Commerce Department reported that orders for durable goods jumped by 2.9% to $188.55 billion in May, which was the best showing since February and followed a 5.5% decline in April.
The rise in durables was much higher than the 0.4% many analysts were predicting and was due to a jump in orders for vehicles, planes and semiconductors.
Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders rose 2.7% in May. Analysts tend to look at this figure – durable orders minus transportation -- as a barometer for the health of general manufacturing, the Associated Press explained.
However, despite the surprising rise, orders were still 11.5% lower in May than they were in May of 2000, Bloomberg noted. This reflects a slowdown in consumer and business demand that has caused factories to reduce production and fire workers.
Also Tuesday, the Conference Board, a private business membership and research network which also produces the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators, said that consumer confidence rose in June to 117.9 from 116.1.
It was the second straight month the index rose increased and it now stands at the highest level in six months. Consensus forecasts were for a dip to 114.2, according to Reuters.
In a statement, the Conference Board said that they don’t believe consumers will drastically halt their spending habits or go on major shopping binges in the coming months.
Meanwhile, Commerce also reported that sales of new single-family homes rose 0.8% to a seasonally adjusted 928,000 annual pace. Analysts polled by Reuters had projected an 897,000 annual rate of sales.
Affordable interest rates, coupled with low unemployment and largely unshaken consumer confidence, have helped the housing sector weather the downturn seen in the overall economy.
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