Shoppers in San Francisco during the 2024 holiday season. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg)
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Holiday spending will surpass $1 trillion this year and set a record despite consumer caution, according to a forecast by the National Retail Federation.
Consumers plan to spend nearly $900 per person on average this year, while retail sales are expected to increase in a range of 3.7% to 4.2% from a year earlier, according to the group.
“We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones,” NRF President and Chief Executive Officer Matthew Shay said during a conference call.
Challenges include the government shutdown, with delays in federal spending expected to erode consumer demand, as well as trade uncertainty and persistent inflation, according to the NRF. Retailers are expected to absorb some tariff costs to avoid major price hikes on essential items.