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img src="/sites/default/files/images/articles/printeditiontag_new.gif" width=120 align=right>Truckload and less-than-truckload companies have been reporting excellent financial results for the fourth quarter of 2002, as a jump in freight volume without a matching increase in fleet capacity kept rates high and added needed black ink to company balance sheets.

Trucking’s gains came even though, as reported by the Commerce Department the past week gross domestic product grew at only a 0.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter, the lowest rate since early 2001.

Thus, many of the gains came because of capacity decreases caused by trucking bankruptcies and closings.

Unfortunately, from the looks of things, the recovery may be very short-lived for fleets. Many of the same companies that reported good fourth-quarter results warned that the first quarter of the new year wasn’t shaping up to be anywhere near as rosy.

Analysts say that rising fuel prices, consumer pessimism and war jitters are all combining to depress a still fragile economic recovery.

Many of us are banking on a rebound sometime during the last three quarters of 2003, but the memories of the recovery that didn’t happen in the latter half of 2002 may well make many of us more likely to hit the panic button — sooner rather than later.

And if companies and consumers stop spending, the economy will nosedive in a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Clearly, President Bush is aware of the situation. In his Jan. 28 State of the Union message, he said the economy “is not growing fast enough, or strong enough,” to suit him.

He looked on the bright side as well, noting that while the recovery may be too weak for all of our likings, it was coming despite terrorist attacks, stock market selloffs and corporate scandals.

One of the few bright spots on the economic horizon last quarter was in the housing sector, where low interest rates sparking a sales boom in December.

Durable goods orders — that is, products expected to last longer than three years — showed a slight increase in December, but most of the gain was attributed to defense-related spending.

The Federal Reserve Board chose to keep interest rates low during its meeting this past week, but the economy clearly needs more than that to rekindle growth.

And a good place to start would be to get diesel and gasoline prices down. Again we urge the president to help us all by opening up the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

This article appears in the Feb. 3 print edition of Transport Topics. Subscribe today.