���ϳԹ���

Click here to write a Letter to the Editor.

img src="/sites/default/files/images/articles/printeditiontag_new.gif" width=120 align=right>The average price of diesel fuel in the United States jumped another 5 cents in the federal government’s latest survey, pushing the average to its highest level since December 2000.

And more bad news may be just around the corner.

Since mid-December, the diesel average has climbed more than 14 cents a gallon, to $1.542. The new price is less than 13 cents away from the $1.67 recorded on Oct. 16, 2000, which was the all-time high since the government started tracking the national average.

Based on statistics compiled by American Trucking Associations, that means that we can expect the higher cost of diesel to drive about 1,400 commercial fleets containing five trucks or more out of business. These shuttered fleets would join the more than 8,400 that went bankrupt between 1999 and the close of 2002.

While fleets may turn to surcharges to try to recapture their increased fuel costs, it appears that most of them are able to recoup only a fraction of their additional out-of-pocket expenses. Small fleets seem least able to compel shippers to pay fuel surcharges. Many of their customers go looking for other carriers that are willing to move the freight for less, the fleets report.

And if prices aren’t high enough to cause concern now, some analysts anticipate additional price spikes, because the cost of crude oil has continued to rise.

The Department of Energy warned last week that “unless there is a sudden collapse in the crude market, we expect retail prices to increase another 5 or 6 cents, based on activity in the wholesale market.”

That could push the diesel average above $1.60 a gallon, and that’s before there has been any fighting in Iraq. If hostilities break out, it is reasonable to expect far more serious price consequences as traders get more concerned about potential problems with the crude oil supply.

This is bad news for trucking. While surviving fleets may be able to raise their rates as the number of trucks on the road declines, higher fuel prices are a major drag on the overall economy.

If truckers are to thrive, the U.S. economy needs to grow, and that’s unlikely to happen with crude oil well above the $30-a-barrel mark. Many analysts say that is the top price the world’s industrial economies can afford to pay and still stay robust.

This article appears in the Feb. 10 print edition of Transport Topics. Subscribe today.