Corn Drops With Record US Harvest Even Bigger Than Expected
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Chicago corn futures fell to the lowest level in nearly a year after the Department of Agriculture raised its already record-large outlook for the American harvest.
The USDA in a monthly report Aug. 12 estimated U.S. corn production at 16.74 billion bushels, with a yield of 188.8 bushels per acre, with each surpassing estimates in a Bloomberg survey. That’s after farmers planted more corn acres than a year ago, and fields benefited from abundant rainfall and minimal damaging heat.
The harvest “if realized would be the highest production for grain on record for the United States,” the agency said in its report.
Corn futures for December delivery fell by as much as 3.9% to $3.92 a bushel, the lowest since Aug. 29.
While cheaper grain is welcomed by livestock and poultry producers as well as other food makers, the low prices are limiting farmers’ spending power and hitting demand for fertilizer and farm machinery. Shares for some farm suppliers, including AGCO Corp. and Nutrien, eased after the USDA report was released. Nutrien ranks No. 10 on the Transport Topics Top 100 list of the largest private carriers in North America and No. 2 on the agriculture/food processing sector list.
“Alarm bells are ringing across rural America following today’s USDA report, and they should be ringing in the halls of Congress,” said Geoff Cooper, president of the trade group Renewable Fuels Association, pointing to a need to raise demand for ethanol to reduce the inventory of corn.
Farmers favored corn this spring in part due to the potential demand risks for soybeans, with the world’s top soy importer China avoiding U.S. crops amid the trade dispute with President Donald Trump.
RELATED: Trump Presses China to Quadruple US Soybean Purchases
Soybean futures notched gains of more than 1%, with estimated output of 4.29 billion bushels falling below estimates for 4.374 billion, even though yields were seen at a record.
The USDA said the harvested acres for soybeans was lower than its estimate a month ago, while harvested corn acres increased.
Cotton, Beef Cuts
Cotton futures gained as U.S. plantings are forecast to fall 17% year over year to 9.28 million acres, which would be the lowest since 2015.
Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs are seen hurting beef shipments, even as the U.S. faces the smallest cattle herd in seven decades. The USDA cut its estimates for beef imports in 2025 and 2026, partly reflecting higher levies, particularly on shipments from Brazil. Still, imports are projected to exceed levels seen in 2024.
RELATED: Cargill’s Revenue Hits 4-Year Low Amid Falling Crop Prices
The USDA is projecting U.S. beef production to drop next year to the lowest since 2016.
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