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Stacks of cardboard boxes at a manufacturing facility in Holland, Mich. (Emily Elconin/Bloomberg)

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An extended slowdown in sales of cardboard boxes is intensifying concern that this holiday season will be a disappointing one for US retailers.��

U.S. corrugated box shipments fell to the lowest third-quarter reading since 2015, maintaining the more measured pace seen in the previous quarter, according to Friday data from industry group Fibre Box Association. Packaging companies in recent weeks have warned that economic uncertainty is weighing on retailers and consumers.

Shipments of corrugated cardboard — the material used to package goods shipped to and from retailers, and for elaborate store displays — can serve as a demand indicator for food and consumer goods. This time of year is crucial for the box industry, with shipments typically peaking in October as retailers prepare for the holidays.��

Box plants surveyed by Bloomberg Intelligence said orders were flat or below normal in October, while U.S. consumer sentiment fell to a��five-month low��and��manufacturing activity��dropped for an eighth straight month.

“We’re not getting a lot of lift, obviously, from the economy,” Packaging Corp of America President Thomas Hassfurther said last month. “And these starts and stops that we’ve seen consistently go on throughout the year relative to tariffs and a bunch of other things certainly are impacting the business.”

Paper and packaging giant Smurfit Westrock Plc last week reported an 8.7% drop in North America same-day box volumes in the third quarter, compared to a year earlier. Shares plunged more than 12% to the lowest closing price since trading began in July 2024, while Packaging Corp. of America also dropped.

International Paper Co. lowered its outlook for net sales this year and in 2027, sending shares plummeting nearly 13%.

U.S. box industry shipments are poised to drop 1% to 1.5% this year versus 2024 “due to factors like trade uncertainty, soft consumer sentiment, and weak housing market,” International Paper CEO Andy Silvernail said on an earnings call last week. That marks a reversal from expectations at the beginning of this year for an annual gain, he added.

It was “obvious” the targets needed to be adjusted, unless there were expectations of a “major pickup” in both US and European volumes, Silvernail said. “We thought it was appropriate to capture that and not kid ourselves or anybody else around that, and focus on what we can control.”